b"Tiny Terror levels for at least a few months to getthing we do expect through the end that inventory back in the pipe. of the year and possibly in 2021. For 2021, he said IHS Markit ex- Thereafter, we expect production to As a result of that disruption topects a 17.6% increase in U.S. automo- line up with the new sales level.production, the provider of criticaltive production compared with this industrial information and analyticsyear, or 15.2 million vehicles. However,Waiting on the Tarmacexpects a 21% decline in year-over- that level is down about 7% com- Compared with automotive, the year North American automotivepared with 2019 figures, and fleet ac- outlook for the aerospace indus-production, with a total of 13 milliontivity still will be a bit constrained. try isnt so rosy, as many people vehicles rolling off assembly lines byThroughout the pandemic thishave avoided flying or have been the end of 2020, he said. year, consumers willing and able torestricted from traveling to certain With the production lockdown inpurchase a vehicle could do so evendestinations.the rearview mirror, the auto indus- though inventory has been slightlyWe have never seen anything try is putting the pedal to the metal. limited, but year-over-year sales willquite like this on the commercial Ways that COVID-19 has affected manufacturersSales are down 44%Cost of materials and components have increased 41%Our production lead times have lengthened 41%Product launches have been delayed or canceled 41%Weve had to lay off good employees 36%Its been more difficult to secure financing 29%R&D and innovation budgets have been cut 27%We've been unable to fill customer orders 24%COVID-19 has not negatively impacted our business 11%0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% What is odd is how resilient thebe down for 2020, Anderson said. aero side, said Richard L. Aboula-market has been, all things consid- Month over month, he said, wefia, vice president of analysis for Teal ered, Anderson said. I would havesee a need to run at very strong pro- Group Corp., about the impact of never guessed that in March or Aprilduction levels as OEMs continue toCOVID-19.within two to three months we wouldThe Fairfax, Virginia, firm pro-get their inventories built up after the be running at pre-pandemic levels. prolonged shutdown. That is some- vides analysis of the aerospace and He said although auto sales weredefense markets.down significantly, there was no in- Aboulafia said commercial aero-ventory replenishment during theabout the authorspace likely will take three years to6lockdown. recover, but the challenges are Getting the supply chain and au- Alan Richter isunprecedented.tomakers back and running has beeneditor-at-largeIn his report COVID-19 and Civil a long road, Anderson said, butof CTE. ContactAviation Markets: New Dawn Fades, they have been able to get back tohim at alanr@ hesaidtrafficnumbersremain pre-COVID levels. And we see thectemedia.com. apocalyptic as the pandemic per-expectation to keep running at thosesists, declining 63% for 2020. As 18DECEMBER 2020Outlook.indd 18 11/13/20 11:41 AM"